How the Butterfly Effect Shapes US-China Realities
Panel on "lying flat," My recent op-eds, and a quote to quiet the heart
It's been quite a few weeks since I last wrote, and a lot has happened.
This week, I had the pleasure of moderating a panel on the Social and Cultural Trends Shaping US-China Societies with Susan Greenhalgh, Prof. Emerita at Fairbank/Harvard University, Prof. Yao Lu, Professor of Sociology, and Alec Ash, fellow & editor of China Books Review at Asia Society. It was part of China Institute’s annual Executive Summit.
It was a fascinating discussion of everything from China’s evolving demographics, the shifting mindsets of the young generation, and social identity in the underemployment and unemployment environments. We hit all the buzzwords du jour: “lying flat,” “involution,” “quality children” and “three-child policy,” “invisible labor of mothers” (ok, this is not as buzzy, but let’s talk about it more) and took apart these topics from a gender and cultural lens.
And speaking of cultural phenomenons, my previous post on live streaming
in China was partially inspired by an interview I did with New York Times’ Muyi Xiao, which came out as a dopamine-filled visual story. My hot take? Cheap thrills! Against a slowing economy and the aforementioned unemployment reality, engaging in the consumption economy without a huge hit to the wallets is the trend du jour.
I also had the pleasure of teaching an undergraduate class at my alma mater, New York University a couple of weeks ago. The class is on facilitating cross-cultural communications, and my topic was "The US-China Narrative in a Time of Turmoil." We talked about stakeholder management, the idea of dual-narrative (and why it's a nonstarter), the differences between PR and marketing, and how the nuances are evolving. I incorporated many of my op-eds as case studies, and the Q&A was quite lively!
In preparation for all these talks and writing, I’ve been thinking a lot about how the butterfly effect: seemingly insignificant and unconnected actions or events that lead to unpredictable consequences over time, like a butterfly flapping its wings causing a chain of events that results in a distant storm.
For example, the halted Ant Financial IPO redirected the company's focus toward expansion in Southeast Asia, where it now competes fiercely with Tencent in the payments sector. Trump's election win not only challenged the influence of traditional media but also fueled questions about the legitimacy of ongoing anti-China rhetoric, affecting everything from debates over TikTok to interpretations of China's cultural and social dynamics. The continuous alk about tariffs raises uncertainty: are they merely a negotiation tactic in the "art of the deal," or will they become a reality? Meanwhile, the trend of "China shedding" continues, highlighted by companies like Hillhouse Capital removing references to China from their corporate websites, even as CEO Zhang Lei meets with Shanghai’s party chief.
These are the topics of my op-eds in recent weeks for Tech in Asia and FT Chinese.
Apps vs. alliances: the SEA playbook of rivals Tencent and Ant
Shein and Temu in crosshairs of Trump’s tariffs
Hillhouse, ByteDance, and Shein’s dance around the China question
美国传统媒体衰退中的竞选教训: 特朗普如何赢得选举宣传战
Trump’s tariff policies will be most acutely felt in Panyu, Guangzhou, where Shein suppliers will face even slimmer profit margins, likely lowering production quality to stay afloat. Temu sellers will see fewer orders as the platform recalibrates its aggressive customer acquisition strategy, resulting in reduced traffic compared to previous months. Escalating Trump rhetoric will create the illusion that America is closed to Chinese businesses, causing "go-from the robot vacuum makers, Instagram-based apparel e-commerce platform, and C-beauty brands—to reconsider investing. This may dent Meta's ad revenue, dim enthusiasm for the upcoming CES and industry events, and fuel media coverage of decoupling.
Even with all the talks about de-globalization, we are more connected than not. Lately, I’ve been reading Flow by Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, and in the section “The Roots of Discontent,” he eloquently expresses a truth that has given me a deeper sense of hope, despite the wariness I’ve felt over the past few months.
“There is not much that we as individuals can do to change the wai the universe runs. In our lifetime we exert little influence over the forces that interfere with our well-being. It is important to do as much as we can to prevent nuclear war, to abolish social injustice, to eradicate hunger and dseas. But it is prudent not to expect that efforts to change external conditions will immediately improve he quality of our lives.
As J.S. Mill wrote: ‘No great improvement in the lot of mankind are possible, until a great change takes place in the fundamental constitution of their modes of thought.’”