What do DeepSeek and Rednote have in common?

They are very demure and letting others tell their stories

Deepseek and RedNote are the new media darlings everyone's talking about - but can't get answers from.

We all want to know how will RedNote manage content moderation rules and keeping new users engaged. Burning question for Deepseek, did High-Flyer hold short positions in Nvidia? And what did it take to innovate despite all the constraints?

The two companies present an interesting dilemma: if Americans want to use foreign tech platforms that can influence perception, collect lots of data, and become part of daily life and work, what can regulators really do? Will what media say really matter to users?

Both companies are silent and demure at the moment. They don’t have to say anything; both are private companies with no disclosure obligations. They don't have to deal with "China shedding" challenge many of its peers face (ahem, Shein, Temu, TikTok) since they've been clear about their Chinese roots from day one, so the incentive to engage with western media presents more risks than opportunities. Neither seems to have global PR functions to handle all the attention they're getting.

In turn, speculation is rampant, and Deepseek and RedNote have essentially allowed others tell their story.

Media and analysts in both China and the US are racing to figure out what this means for AI competition between the two countries, how will the social media landscape change—just all. the. questions.

To play the devil’s advocate, why should Rednote and Deepseek speak up?

Right now, they’ve got momentum. But can they actually turn it into something tangible—aka $$$, power, influence, users, partnerships, or, ideally, all of the above?

DeepSeek

The media coverage currently centers around the following themes:

• Market Disruption: DeepSeek's low development cost has triggered investor anxiety, wiping out billions of shareholder value and fueling fears of a "Sputnik moment" for American AI leadership.

• Limitations of U.S. Export Controls: DeepSeek’s accomplishments highlight the ineffectiveness of U.S. export controls in slowing China’s AI progress, and may have helped China to innovate with less. (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/deepseek-shows-the-limits-of-us-export-controls-on-ai-chips/)

• Investment in Innovation: DeepSeek challenges the belief that cutting-edge AI requires massive infrastructure investments, though some challenge this thesis because DeepSeek is built on the backbone of existing AI investments.

• Censorship and Ethical Concerns: DeepSeek's been found censoring politically sensitive topics, raising concerns about the ethical risks of AI systems reinforcing state narratives.

• National Security: last but not least, the good ol’ potential national security risks. DeepSeek has fueled concerns over surveillance and data vulnerabilities.

  DeepSeek’s PR Silence: A Lost Opportunity to Shape the Narrative

  By allowing others—critics, competitors, and policymakers—to define its reputation and set the topics of discussion, Deepseek leaves a void that is quickly filled with speculation, security concerns, and worst-case assumptions.

• A proactive strategy—offering interviews, publishing technical explainers, or providing transparency reports—could firmly contain the conversations on DeepSeek technological breakthroughs, efficiency, team and executives and cost advantages.

  • Right now, Meta is hijacking the narrative—despite being caught off guard and created “war rooms” to reverse engineer DeepSeek’s technology—and rolling out its properly media-trained VP to send a globalist, innovation and open-source first message:

    “Our open source strategy was validated. The more people who have access to the technology needed to move things forward faster, the better.”

• The China-Tech Backlash Effect: the default perception of any major breakthrough from China is often negative—associated with state control, stolen/borrowed technology, and security threats. By not participating in the discourse, DeepSeek has surrendered the opportunity to shape a more nuanced narrative. A well-crafted international PR strategy could focus on its technological achievements, future plans, and clarification of common misconceptions.

  • OpenAI + Microsoft has rolled out Reid Hoffman, former CEO of Linkedin and Microsoft board member, to reinforce the thesis. This week, he appeared on the Pivot podcast, and while his remarks aren’t an official statement from OpenAI, pushing this perspective is a smart move—allowing them to shape the broader narrative while maintaining the safe guise of opinions from an "outside observer."

    Here’s the (unofficial) position on the state of play:

    “there is certainly some parts of the story that’s incorrect, the thing that we are trying to figure out is which parts are incorrect. I would speculate, with some vigor, that [DeepSeek] had some version of access to larger models and helping train it”…I would hazard strongly that there is something like that in the background, and that could have had some kind of access to ChatGPT, certainly some of the data and evidence suggests that in the way [DeepSeek]answers and does certain things…”

    “I think it’s merely certain that it was depended upon the large scale compute, the larger models in some way, the only question is we don’t know in what ways and how.”

• Censorship and national security: DeepSeek’s AI has been criticized for censorship and avoiding politically sensitive topics. If the company continues to avoid engaging with these concerns, it risks being seen as a tool of state control rather than a technological pioneer. A potential solution would be to embrace transparency—publishing clear guidelines on how its model handles sensitive topics, acknowledging areas of improvement, and making commitments to ethical AI practices. Other AI firms, including OpenAI and Anthropic, have navigated similar challenges by releasing research papers, safety reports, and roadmaps for AI alignment.

  • DeepSeek is also a hot topic in China, and as a company from Hangzhou, Zhejiang, the official stance is conveyed through Zhejiang’s state mouthpiece, 浙江宣传. In one sentence: innovation is not done behind closed doors.

Rednote

Now shifting gear to why Rednote should be proactive?

One word: valuation.

Rednote's value has bounced around quite a bit: in November 2021, Rednote raised $500 million, and valued at $20 billion. In 2 years, it was adjusted to $14 billion. In July 2024, valuation increased to $17 billion following new investments from DST and Hongshan.

Fast forward to January 2025, stake sale talks valuing the company to be at least $20 billion.

Looking past their China-shedding investors (specifically, Hillhouse and GGV, which I've penned op-eds about in the Wired China and Tech in Asia), I’d argue that the TikTok ban rush has created enterprise value - the company's worth, at least on paper, grew by $3 billion in just six months, with major backers like Hongshan, Tencent, and Hillhouse wanting to increase stake after the #TikTokrefugee movement.

Maintaining the momentum will create tangible financial value. Having a PR strategy to communicate clearly is one thing, but other factors will also impact Rednote in negative and positive ways.

User retention uncertain

Many new users are TikTok refugees looking for alternatives, but will they stay and how will Rednote commercialize this new demographics? And time is of the essence, because the tide is already turning. Trump's announcement of a 75-day delay in the TikTok ban has brought everyone back to reality. The data tells the story: RedNote has lost over half its daily active US users since the peak of 32.5 million users. Similarweb reports a 54% drop in US daily active users, while Sensor Tower shows a 17% decline in average daily active users between January 20-22 compared to the previous week. The app store rankings reflect this shift too. After briefly claiming the #1 spot in the US free apps category, RedNote has now dropped to #16, trailing behind other Chinese apps like Temu (#7) and ReelShort (#9).

But Rednote has a lot going for it too. It’s cracked the code for social commerce in China and it could do it again in the U.S.

Unlike TikTok, which mostly makes money from ads, RedNote has built a solid foundation in e-commerce and KOC and KOL influencer community that brands like. Rednote also has appeal to luxury brands: where TikTok struggles with high-end brands, Rednote has built trust in luxury, fashion, and beauty for its predominantly female user base. .

As I told Jing Daily, Christian Science Monitor, and Rest of World recently, RedNot is illustrating a shift in global digital culture.

The same goes for Deepseek - when Silicon Valley got curious and insiders started tweeting, everyone rushed to try this new thing.

Ending the post with a Hamilton song that says it best:

Let me tell you what I wish I'd known
When I was young and dreamed of glory
You have no control
Who lives, who dies, who tells your story?

And a plug, happy to tell your stories, guys :) www.waveletnyc.com